According to TrendForce's latest AI server industry analysis, in 2026, due to continued robust demand from cloud service providers (CSPs) and sovereign clouds, the demand for GPUs and ASICs will increase. In addition, with the booming development of AI inference applications, global AI server shipments are expected to increase by more than 20% year-on-year, accounting for 17% of the overall server market.

Looking at AI server shipments in 2025, TrendForce has slightly lowered its year-on-year growth forecast to around 24% due to obstacles faced by NVIDIA's H20 in the Chinese market and delays in the rollout of GB300 and B300 systems. In terms of AI server revenue, 2025 is expected to see nearly 48% year-on-year growth, benefiting from the new Blackwell solution and the higher-value integrated AI solutions in GB200/GB300 racks. In 2026, with GPU suppliers actively launching rack-based solutions and CSPs expanding investment in ASIC AI infrastructure, AI server revenue is expected to increase by more than 30% compared to 2025, accounting for 74% of total server revenue.

Analyzing the competitive landscape of AI chip suppliers, it is estimated that Nvidia will still hold about 70% of the market in 2025. However, in 2026, due to the stronger performance of North American CSPs and China's self-developed AI chips, the growth rate of ASIC shipments is expected to be higher than that of GPUs, which will lead to a decline in Nvidia's market share.

TrendForce indicates that high-end AI chips primarily utilize High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), while mid-to-low-end products employ Graphics DRAM. Driven by sustained high GPU demand and continuous product innovation from suppliers, the HBM capacity in some chips has significantly increased, boosting HBM demand. Based on AI chip shipment projections for 2025, HBM demand is expected to grow by over 130% annually. HBM consumption is projected to continue increasing in 2026, with an annual growth rate exceeding 70%, primarily driven by the penetration of B300, GB300, R100/R200, and VR100/VR200, coupled with Google TPU and AWS Trainium's aggressive push towards the HBM3e generation.

Regarding HBM pricing, in 2025, demand will be relatively strong due to the main use of HBM3e generation products in Nvidia and AMD chips, and the trend of ASICs upgrading to HBM3e. The average selling price of HBM3e will increase by 5-10% annually. After Samsung completes HBM3e verification, in 2026, this product will present a competitive landscape among the three major manufacturers, giving buyers a significant bargaining advantage, and contract prices may face downward pressure.

Currently, HBM4 has entered the sampling stage, and its further progress remains to be seen. Buyers are preparing to begin stockpiling, and TrendForce predicts that its 2026 selling price will be significantly higher than HBM3e, resulting in substantial profit margins for suppliers. However, if all three manufacturers complete verification next year, the buyer and seller may renegotiate the price.